Roadable Aircraft Market Potential
Skyblazer is a new class of vehicle and so there are no specific historical data available on its market potential. Unlike any other aircraft, however, Skyblazer’s potential is not confined to the existing aviation market but, like an automobile, extends to the general public. Comparative figures from the automobile and airplane industry show vast difference in sales potential. In the USA in 2001 there were over 12 million new cars and trucks sold, compared to only 2510 personal aircraft – giving aviation a minuscule 0.021% share of the ‘personal vehicle’ market. Even capturing just one half of one percent of this potential market would give Skyblazer annual sales of 6500 units – about 200 times the average for general aviation. In this respect, although transportation in general is considered a ‘mature’ technology, the potential for Skyblazer is entirely untapped.
The initial cost of a production Skyblazer could be in excess of $1,000,000. This will have a negative impact on sales, restricting the initial market to those individuals or corporations with sufficient means. It is typical for a new technology to be expensive, however, if a concept proves desirable, it sells regardless of price. As production volumes increase, the price decreases so that it attracts an ever expanding group of consumers. Every successful technology ever introduced has followed this pattern, including bicycles, automobiles, telephones, computers and cell phones.
Although it is difficult to imagine a world changed by a new technology, it has happened many times before. Computers, for instance, were initially restricted to a few large businesses and government departments who could make use of, and afford, a mainframe system. Only after some crazy kids, working out of their garage, had made the first PC’s could people begin to imagine owning a computer. Now, of course, PC’s are ubiquitous and it is hard to remember how we worked without them. Also, not so long ago, there were no overnight package services – in fact, when the idea was first presented, it was considered frivolous and unnecessary. FedEx is now the number one package carrier in the world and their service is considered absolutely essential by most businesses. Similarly, I believe that Skyblazer fills a particular need – and will be considered an essential productivity tool for anyone who requires, or wants, to travel quickly within a 1000 mile radius.